Highlights from the 38th Season of Nerdtalk's Visitor Prediction Game

The 38th season of Nerdtalk's Visitor Prediction Game has concluded, featuring 15 rounds, 261 predictions, and 21 enthusiastic participants. The median score of 120 points indicates that competitors remained closely matched throughout the season. At times, only a few thousand visitors influenced critical points, while major blockbusters led to significant discrepancies between predictions and actual attendance.

The Rankings

The Top Predictors

The top three positions saw little change by the season's end: Bernhard successfully defended his first place, while IronWatcher secured second place. Zorro-Art rounded out the top three, maintaining a strong presence in the rankings until the final round.

Congratulations to the podium finishers 🥇, and a nod to the many others who also performed admirably, especially those in the top ten. This season presented its share of challenging numbers that could easily derail predictions.

The Most Attended Films 🍿

Leading the box office was Der Super Mario Galaxy Film, which attracted an impressive 953,163 visitors during its opening weekend, continuing the success of the previous Mario film. Video game adaptations have proven to be a reliable draw at German cinemas.

Following closely was Der Teufel trägt Prada 2, which garnered 480,367 visitors. Nearly two decades after the original cult classic, audiences were eager to revisit the fashion world on the big screen.

In third place, Michael attracted 424,096 visitors. The biopic about Michael Jackson created buzz long before its release, successfully translating that anticipation into ticket sales.

The Best Predictions of a Round 🎯

Some participants showcased remarkable accuracy in their predictions.

🥇 phil achieved an impressive total difference of just 2,447 visitors for Passenger and Verflucht Normal, nearing a perfect guess. Such precision is rare in cinema predictions.

🥈 IronWatcher followed with a difference of 7,563 visitors for Arco – Eine fantastische Reise durch die Zeiten, How to Make a Killing: Todsicheres Erbe, and The History of Sound. Smaller film releases often present a challenge, making this achievement noteworthy.

🥉 Zorro-Art completed the podium with a difference of 10,581 visitors for Nouvelle Vague, Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and The Testament of Ann Lee. Another commendable performance.

The Toughest Rounds 🤯

Not every week proved easy to predict. Some films elicited responses from audiences that diverged significantly from expectations.

Unquestionably, Der Super Mario Galaxy Film topped the list with an average total difference of 500,244 visitors. Nearly half a million visitors deviated from predictions on average, underscoring the challenge of gauging such immense interest.

Der Teufel trägt Prada 2 and Tom und Jerry: Der Verlorene Kompass also posed difficulties, each with an average deviation of 261,459 visitors.

Following them were Top Gun: Maverick and Glennkill: Ein Schafskrimi, both with a difference of 194,439, highlighting the unpredictability surrounding a re-release of a blockbuster.

Rounds featuring Michael (176,449) and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (117,109) also proved challenging, as established franchises can lead to fluctuating expectations.

The Flop Lists

The Least Attended Films 🎥

Not every film captured the audience's attention during its opening weekend.

The Chronology of Water finished at the bottom with just 1,598 visitors. Kristen Stewart's directorial debut targeted an arthouse audience, resulting in a modest turnout.

Close behind was Is This Thing On with 2,325 visitors, which also aimed at a niche audience rather than a broad appeal.

In third place was Arco – Eine fantastische Reise durch die Zeiten, attracting 2,863 visitors. Animated films without recognizable brands often struggle against major family releases.

The Worst Predictions 😅

While some predictions hit the mark, others were far from reality.

The largest discrepancy was recorded by Kiesi, whose prediction for Der Super Mario Galaxy Film was off by an astonishing 2,046,837 visitors—a stark indication of the film's unexpected success.

phil came in second with a difference of 512,278 visitors for Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) and Mortal Kombat II. Concert films and video game adaptations often yield surprising box office results.

storki placed third with a total deviation of 502,697 visitors for Der Teufel trägt Prada 2 and Tom und Jerry: Der Verlorene Kompass.

The Easiest Rounds ✨

On the flip side, some film releases were surprisingly well predicted.

The round featuring Passenger and Verflucht Normal was the easiest, with an average total difference of just 21,807 visitors, remarkably close to actual attendance.

Also accurately predicted were Arco – Eine fantastische Reise durch die Zeiten, How to Make a Killing: Todsicheres Erbe, and The History of Sound, with an average deviation of 33,940 visitors.

Completing the list of straightforward rounds were Nouvelle Vague, Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and The Testament of Ann Lee, where predictions were off by only 45,952 visitors—further showcasing the participants' accuracy with smaller film launches.

A huge thank you to all 21 participants who made season 38 engaging with their 261 predictions. Each week brought new film releases, surprising attendance figures, and many close calls, adding to the excitement of our visitor prediction game.

Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the next season, which has already begun. New films, fresh surprises, and possibly the next near-perfect prediction await.