Oscar Predictions 2026 – Results and Winners

The Oscars have been awarded, the envelopes opened, and the results of our prediction game are in! It’s time to delve into the numbers, surprises, and, of course, the top predictors of the year.

With 24 categories (including the new category “Best Casting”) and 120 participants, the competition was larger in terms of categories, though the number of participants was notably smaller than in previous years. Typically, we see 300-400 participants in our prediction game. The reasons for this decline are open to speculation:

Perhaps it reflects a diminishing interest in the Oscars, as we've discussed in our podcast? Or could it be due to a lack of an emotionally compelling frontrunner this year? Whatever the reasons may be, let’s take a closer look at the numbers themselves.

📊 Statistics & Insights

🎯 Overall Performance: Strong Level

On average, participants correctly predicted 14.54 categories, a significant improvement over previous years where the average was 7.64 correct predictions in 2025 and 11.38 in 2024.

Notably, three areas stood out, collectively accounting for over a third of all predictions:

• 20 correct predictions: 16.67%
• 19 correct predictions: 15.00%
• 11 correct predictions: 10.83%

Importantly, the pinnacle of achievement was 22 correct predictions, an impressive feat given there were 24 categories.

Just behind this were:

• 21 correct predictions: 3.33%
• 20 correct predictions: 16.67%

This indicates that beyond the winners, many participants had nearly flawless predictions.

🔥 The Easiest Categories

Certain categories proved to be a breeze for the community:

• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (90.00%)
• Best Original Song: “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters (80.00%)
• Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another (78.33%)
• Best Sound: F1 (77.50%)
• Best Original Score: Blood and Sinners (76.67%)

In these categories, the accuracy rate was exceptionally high, with many participants hitting the mark.

❗ The Toughest Categories

Conversely, some categories presented real challenges:

• Best Animated Short Film: Das Mädchen, das Perlen weinte (20.83%)
• Best Casting: One Battle After Another (20.83%)
• Best Documentary: Ein Nobody gegen Putin (25.83%)
• Best Cinematography: Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Blood and Sinners (27.50%)

The newly introduced Best Casting category particularly caused uncertainty, living up to its debut status.

📉 Surprises & Observations

• No one scored poorly: There were no results with fewer than 4 correct predictions.
• The distribution showed: Many excellent predictions, with few outliers at the bottom.
• The second prediction submitted even forecasted 19 correct categories – shoutout to Fabse! 😉
• Interestingly, there was no specific trend of particularly good or bad predictions over time: Predictions of 19 or 20 correct categories came in early, while those at the end tended to have 6 or 7 correct.
• For only the seventh time in Oscar history, there was a tie in voting: In the Best Short Film category, both The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva were awarded. We, of course, counted both correctly predicted categories.

🏆 Winners of the Prediction Game

🥇 Top Winner – Displates

The competition at the top was fierce:

• Dominic K. – 22 correct predictions → Prize: Displate (Size L)
• Björn H. – 21 correct predictions → Prize: Displate (Size M)
• Marcel K. – 21 correct predictions → Prize: Displate (Size M)

Congratulations on this remarkable achievement!

Notably, there were two additional participants with 21 correct predictions:

• Dennis B. – 21 correct predictions
• Fabian – 21 correct predictions

However, Björn and Marcel submitted their predictions earlier, securing a crucial advantage.

🎁 Additional Winners – App Store Vouchers

Among all participants, we also raffled off 10× €10 Apple App Store/Play Store vouchers:

• Bodo F. – 12 correct predictions
• Gerlinde H. – 9 correct predictions
• Frank W. – 14 correct predictions
• Stefan W. – 11 correct predictions
• Tobias T. – 21 correct predictions
• Karl – 9 correct predictions
• Robert S. – 17 correct predictions
• Chris – 20 correct predictions
• Lutz G. – 12 correct predictions
• Michael – 16 correct predictions

Congratulations to all of you as well!

🎉 Conclusion

The Oscar prediction game for 2026 may have seen fewer participants than usual, but the quality of predictions was exceptionally high. Many participants were surprisingly accurate, while certain categories created real suspense.

A heartfelt thank you to everyone who participated, and congratulations to all the winners! We’re already looking forward to the next round. 🎬